UK house price growth is slowing, but Islay Robinson explains why financing certainty and preparation could matter more than trying to predict the market.

UK house price growth has slowed sharply. The latest Nationwide House Price Index shows annual growth halved to 0.8% in September, from 1.6% in August. Prices fell 0.2% during the month, leaving the average UK property at £274,251.

It was the weakest annual rate since December 2025 and well below the 1.3% economists had expected, according to Reuters.

The regional picture is also becoming more divided. Eight of the 13 regions recorded annual growth below 1% in the third quarter, with four recording small annual falls. Northern Ireland, the North and Scotland performed best, while East Anglia was the weakest region, with prices down 0.7% year on year.

The wider transaction data points in the same direction. HM Revenue & Customs reported that seasonally adjusted residential transactions fell 1% between July and August, while the Bank of England reported that mortgage approvals for house purchases fell to 54,900 in August, their lowest level since December 2023.

But I am less interested in the headline number than in what is happening underneath it.

The National Market Is Not the Market My Clients Are Buying In

I have no strong view on where the national average will finish the year.

It describes a very different market from the one my clients buy in.

That does not mean the national data is irrelevant. The same forces are affecting prime property: borrowing costs, confidence, taxation, bond markets and uncertainty around government policy. What changes at the top end is how buyers and sellers respond to those conditions.

We are already seeing forecasts being revised down. Zoopla now expects annual UK house price growth to slow to around 0.5% by the end of 2026. Savills' June forecast is for a 2% fall in average mainstream UK house prices this year, while economists at Pantheon Macroeconomics have also moved towards a broadly flat outlook.

There is therefore no shortage of forecasts. What there is less certainty about is what individual buyers should actually do with them.

The Budget Is Already Affecting Behaviour

The Autumn Budget is still three weeks away, on 28 October, and that uncertainty is already affecting the market. The date has been confirmed by HM Treasury.

Nationwide's chief economist expects the autumn market to be quieter than usual, partly because some potential sellers are waiting to see what is announced.

That makes sense. If you do not know whether the Budget will change the tax or regulatory environment around property, it is understandable to pause before making a major financial decision.

But waiting has consequences as well.

Knight Frank reported in September that buyers in prime central London were using pre-Budget speculation and bond market jitters to negotiate prices down rather than walking away from transactions altogether.

That matches what I am seeing.

There is a difference between being uncertain about the market and being unwilling to buy. Some buyers are still very willing to transact. They simply want to know that the price reflects the uncertainty they are taking on.

Certainty Has Become a Negotiating Tool

This is where I think finance becomes particularly important.

When sellers are cutting prices and both sides know that another major policy date is approaching, the one thing a buyer can control is certainty.

By certainty, I mean something quite specific: having a lender that has already assessed the buyer's income, assets, liabilities and proposed structure before an offer is made. An agreement in principle or early lender assessment is not a formal mortgage offer, and final approval still depends on valuation and full underwriting. This distinction is also reflected in guidance from MoneyHelper, which explains that a mortgage in principle is not a formal mortgage offer and that the lender still needs to assess the property and complete the full application process.

If the financing has already been properly considered, the buyer can be in a much stronger position to exchange and complete around the seller's timetable.

That matters because sellers do not only assess the price of an offer. They assess the likelihood that the transaction will actually complete.

A higher bid that depends on a future valuation, a change in lender appetite or a favourable movement in rates may not be as attractive as a slightly lower bid backed by a buyer whose financing is already well advanced.

In the right circumstances, removing execution risk can therefore become part of the price negotiation.

Structure Matters More When the Buyer Is Complex

The buyers I speak to are not asking me to predict the Budget.

They are asking how to be in a position to act whichever way it goes.

That is a question about structure and timing, rather than forecasting.

For a straightforward borrower with a conventional income and a relatively simple purchase, arranging finance may be comparatively straightforward. For a high-net-worth client with assets in several countries, income through a company or trust, multiple currencies or an existing property portfolio, the process can take considerably more work.

A lender may need to understand the wider balance sheet, the source of income, the ownership of assets, the proposed security and how the loan fits into the client's overall financial position.

That work is better done before the right property is found than after an offer has been accepted.

Once a client has identified a property they want to buy, there is usually enough pressure already. I would rather have the financing structure understood before the negotiation begins.

The Same Principle Applies to Sellers

I would say the same thing to sellers.

A purchaser whose finance has already been tested can be worth more than a higher bid that depends on several things going right between offer and completion.

In a market where mortgage pricing is moving and lenders can reassess their appetite, execution risk matters.

At Enness, we work with private banks, specialist lenders and international institutions across high-value and complex transactions. The firm has access to more than 1,000 lenders, including lenders that specialise in high-net-worth and international borrowers.

For mortgages of £1 million and above, the financing is often structured around the individual circumstances of the borrower rather than simply applying a standard high-street lending model. That can mean looking at global assets, company income, trusts, investment portfolios and the wider balance sheet when assessing which lender and structure may be appropriate.

That is one reason terms can diverge significantly from the mainstream market, in either direction.

I Would Rather Prepare Than Predict

There is a temptation in a market like this to wait for clarity.

Wait for the Budget. Wait for mortgage rates to fall. Wait for house prices to drop further. Wait for the forecasts to become more certain.

The difficulty is that waiting carries its own risks, just as acting does.

For a buyer looking at a £2 million, £5 million or £10 million property, a relatively small change in price can be meaningful. So can a change in financing costs. But trying to predict which one will move first is not necessarily the most productive strategy.

I would rather have a client in a position where they can act if the right property appears.

That means understanding the borrowing capacity, identifying the appropriate lenders, working through the structure and getting as much of the underwriting process completed as possible before the transaction becomes time-sensitive.

Then, if the Budget is favourable, they are ready.

If it is not, they are still ready.

My View

Most forecasts now point towards little or no UK house price growth across 2026, and the Budget is only three weeks away.

That does not necessarily mean buyers should put their plans on hold.

For some buyers, a softer market may create an opportunity to negotiate. For others, the right property may be rare enough that waiting for another few percentage points of price movement is not worth the risk of losing it. Equally, prices may fall further, and buying now will not be right for everyone. Whether and when to buy is a personal decision.

The important question is not whether house prices will be 0.5% higher or 2% lower by the end of the year.

It is whether you are in a position to act when the right opportunity appears.

At the top end of the market, I think certainty has become an increasingly valuable part of that equation.

Islay Robinson
CEO and Founder, Enness Global

Risk warning: Your home may be repossessed if you do not keep up repayments on your mortgage.

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