Islay Robinson explores signs of stabilisation in London’s £10m-plus property market, where spending has risen despite wider market pressures. He examines changing seller expectations, the importance of financing certainty and the potential implications of the upcoming Budget for prime property buyers.

London’s prime property market is showing signs of stabilisation, with high-value transactions holding steady and spending on homes above £10 million increasing. For buyers considering this part of the market, the picture is becoming clearer, but successful transactions still depend on realistic pricing, careful structuring and financing certainty.

A Prime Market Finding Its Footing

Knight Frank recorded 121 sales above £10 million in prime London in the year to September, matching the previous 12 months. Total spending on those transactions rose by 14% to £2.4 billion. That follows a weaker period in which annual sales fell to 106 in the year to November 2025, compared with 155 in the year to November 2024.

The figures suggest the market has absorbed some of the disruption following the abolition of the non-dom tax regime in April 2025. I would describe this as stabilisation rather than recovery. Activity has stopped deteriorating at the same pace, but the market has not returned to previous levels.

The wider prime market tells a similar story. Exchanges across prime central and prime outer London were 2.5% lower in the year to September, a marked improvement on the 14% annual decline recorded in March. According to Knight Frank’s latest research, average prime central London prices remain 22% below their August 2015 peak.

For buyers considering a purchase, lower prices may change the options available, but prices can still fall further. A lower entry price does not, on its own, make a purchase suitable.

Sellers Are Becoming More Realistic

Pricing expectations are an important part of the change. Knight Frank’s head of London sales, Liza-Jane Kelly, has highlighted how some sellers who have spent years on the market are now more willing to accept current conditions and move forward.

I think that shift matters. A buyer may be interested in a property for months, but a transaction only becomes possible when the seller’s expectations and the buyer’s assessment of value begin to align.

There are also signs of renewed activity at the £5 million-plus level. Savills’ September 2026 research reported a significant improvement in sales in this bracket, with Hampstead joining Kensington and Chelsea among the most active locations.

It is difficult to quantify how many international buyers have left London following the non-dom changes. What the transaction figures do show is that demand has continued, with new buyers appearing as others reassess their positions. That is more useful when evaluating the market than focusing on departures alone.

Why Financing Certainty Matters Above £10 Million

At this level, finance is rarely a straightforward product comparison. Buyers may hold wealth across property, investment portfolios, businesses and other assets. A private bank will typically need to understand the borrower’s wider financial position, the proposed ownership structure and the source of funds before deciding whether and on what terms it can lend.

That process can look very different from a standard residential mortgage application. Lender criteria vary, and the right structure depends on the borrower’s circumstances, the property and the intended repayment strategy.

Preparation can make a meaningful difference. A buyer who has already discussed the proposed purchase with an appropriate lender and assembled the necessary financial documentation may be better placed to proceed than someone who begins organising finance after an offer has been accepted. However, early discussions do not guarantee approval or completion within a particular timeframe.

For sellers who have already adjusted their asking price, a credible buyer with a well-prepared financing plan can offer greater confidence that the transaction will progress. Certainty does not replace price, but it can influence how a seller assesses competing offers.

What the Mansion Tax Means for Prime Buyers

The planned High Value Council Tax Surcharge is another consideration for buyers of expensive homes in England. From April 2028, the charge is scheduled to range from £2,500 a year for properties valued between £2 million and £2.5 million to £7,500 for properties worth more than £5 million, in addition to existing council tax. The government’s published guidance on the surcharge sets out the proposed framework.

The annual charge is relatively small compared with the purchase price of a £10 million property, but it forms part of the wider tax environment buyers need to consider. Recent reports from the Financial Times and The Times indicate that the government intends to retain the £2 million threshold rather than extend the surcharge to lower-value homes. The position should be checked against the Budget announcement on 28 October.

Buyers should discuss the potential implications of this and any future tax changes with their tax advisers. My focus is on ensuring the financing structure reflects the actual transaction and the buyer’s broader financial position.

What Comes Next for the Prime London Market?

The next set of transaction figures will help show whether the improvement is sustained. Comparisons with the previous year will be particularly important because activity fell to 106 annual sales above £10 million in the period ending November 2025.

For now, the evidence points to a market that is stabilising rather than fully recovering. More realistic sellers and buyers reassessing value may support further activity, but borrowing costs, tax uncertainty and individual lender criteria will continue to influence decisions.

For anyone considering a prime London purchase, the practical priority is to understand the property’s value, agree a realistic price and establish a suitable financing strategy early. In a market where confidence is returning gradually, preparation can help buyers make informed decisions when a suitable property becomes available.

This article is for general information only and does not constitute personal financial, mortgage or tax advice. Lending decisions, rates and terms are subject to individual circumstances and lender criteria. Property prices can fall as well as rise. Enness does not provide tax, legal or investment advice. Seek independent professional advice before making financial or property decisions.

Your home or property may be repossessed if you do not keep up repayments on your mortgage or any other debt secured on it. Some forms of lending, including most lending to companies, are not regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.