Islay Robinson examines London’s 2.5% rise in October asking prices, exploring whether it signals a genuine market recovery and what current conditions mean for high-value property buyers, sellers and their financing strategies.

London asking prices rose by 2.5% in October to an average of £673,942, according to Rightmove’s October House Price Index. Inner London recorded a stronger monthly increase of 3.9%, following a 6% decline across July and August. Despite the latest rise, asking prices across the capital remain 1.7% lower than a year ago.

Nationally, asking prices increased by 1% to £371,015, leaving them 0.1% below their level in October 2025. The figures suggest that sellers are becoming more optimistic in some parts of the market, but I would be cautious about interpreting one month’s increase as evidence of a wider recovery.

Rightmove’s other indicators tell a more subdued story. In London, 38% of properties listed for sale have had their asking prices reduced, homes take an average of 78 days to find a buyer, and only 42% find one. Across the UK, sales agreed are 8% lower than a year ago, buyer enquiries are down 9%, and the number of homes available for sale is at its highest for this time of year since 2014.

These are not the figures of a market moving confidently in one direction.

Why Rising Asking Prices Do Not Necessarily Mean Higher Property Values

An average asking price measures the properties coming to market, not the price at which homes ultimately sell. If more expensive properties are listed in a particular month, the average can rise even when the value of individual homes has not changed.

That distinction matters in London, particularly at the higher end of the market. Marc von Grundherr of Benham and Reeves has suggested that the forthcoming high-value council tax surcharge is encouraging some owners of more expensive homes to bring forward their selling plans.

The surcharge is scheduled to begin in April 2028 and will apply to qualifying residential properties in England valued at £2 million or more. The government’s official guidance on the High Value Council Tax Surcharge sets out the current framework. Owners who think they may be affected should take advice from a qualified tax adviser.

I can see why the timing might influence some sellers. Owners considering a sale may prefer to act sooner rather than later, particularly if they are already reviewing their property holdings. However, it is important to distinguish a plausible explanation from a proven cause. The monthly asking-price figures alone cannot establish how much of the increase reflects tax-related selling decisions.

What stands out to me is the contrast between the 2.5% increase in London asking prices and the proportion of properties requiring reductions. The headline rise is real, but it does not demonstrate that values are increasing across the capital. Rightmove also points to seasonal factors: London asking prices typically rise more strongly in autumn, when sellers with flexibility on timing come to market as more buyers become active.

A Slow Market, Not a Broad Recovery

I would be careful about reading the figures too negatively as well. London’s monthly increase is meaningful, even if it does not yet establish a sustained recovery. The more useful question is whether it is followed by stronger buyer demand, more agreed sales and fewer price reductions.

Outside the capital, conditions remain challenging in several regions. Rightmove’s figures show that four of the five cheapest regions recorded reductions in asking prices. Higher borrowing costs and uncertainty ahead of the Budget are adding to the pressure on buyers, including in areas that had previously proved more resilient.

Jeremy Leaf, who runs an estate agency in north London, has highlighted how expected mortgage rate rises and Budget uncertainty have affected confidence and activity. His view reflects a wider challenge facing the market: sellers may be hopeful about their property's value, but buyers are working within tighter affordability limits.

With sales agreed 8% lower than a year ago, broadly in line with the pattern seen throughout the year, the market appears to be continuing along a subdued path rather than experiencing a sudden change in sentiment.

For sellers, realistic pricing remains important. An ambitious asking price may attract attention initially, but if buyers have plenty of alternatives, an overpriced property can remain on the market while competing homes secure viewings and offers.

What This Means for Buyers at £2 Million and Above

For buyers considering properties worth £2 million or more, greater choice can create opportunities. Some sellers may have firm reasons for completing a transaction within a particular timeframe, particularly if they are reorganising their property holdings or reviewing their position ahead of the surcharge.

That does not mean every seller will be willing to negotiate, nor that every property is now attractively priced. Buyers still need to assess the individual property, comparable sales and the amount a lender is prepared to advance.

This last point is particularly important. A seller's asking price is not the same as a lender's valuation. If a buyer agrees to pay more than the lender's surveyor considers the property to be worth, the lender may base its offer on the lower valuation. The buyer may then need to provide additional funds to cover the difference.

That gap should be considered before exchange, rather than discovered late in the transaction. Buyers need to understand how much capital they can commit, what their financing structure allows and whether they could comfortably manage a lower-than-expected valuation.

Why Financing Certainty Matters

In the higher-value property market, financing is not simply a matter of finding a mortgage after agreeing a purchase price. The lender's approach to valuation, the borrower's financial structure, the source of funds and the time required for underwriting can all affect whether a transaction proceeds smoothly.

A buyer who has discussed these factors with a lender in advance may be better positioned to respond when a suitable property becomes available. It can also help identify potential valuation gaps and funding constraints before they threaten a transaction. However, early discussions do not guarantee formal approval or completion.

At Enness, we work with a network of lenders, including those that consider complex financial circumstances and higher-value property purchases. Their criteria, valuation approaches and timescales can vary, so identifying an appropriate route early can be valuable.

The Budget and Interest Rate Decision Could Shape Sentiment

The next few weeks bring two important dates for property buyers. The Budget is scheduled for 28 October, followed by the Bank of England's interest rate decision on 5 November.

Both could influence confidence, borrowing costs and buyers' willingness to proceed. Until the announcements are made, however, it is difficult to know how much uncertainty will ease or whether financing conditions will become more favourable.

For now, I would not treat October's rise in London asking prices as proof that the market has turned. It is a positive monthly movement, but the wider indicators still point to cautious buyers, considerable choice and continued pressure on sellers to price competitively.

For buyers, that environment may offer opportunities, provided they understand the property's value and have a financing plan that can withstand a valuation gap. For sellers, the strongest position is likely to come from realistic pricing and a clear understanding of the buyers able to proceed.

Ultimately, the next phase of the market will be determined by completed transactions, buyer demand and financing conditions, not by asking prices alone.

Important Information

Your home may be repossessed if you do not keep up repayments on your mortgage or any other debt secured on it.

This article is for general information only and does not constitute personal financial or mortgage advice. Lending decisions, rates and terms are subject to individual circumstances and lender criteria. Property prices can fall as well as rise. Enness does not provide tax, legal or investment advice. Market data is correct as at 19 October 2026.

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